China's economy can surpass the United States: an inevitable trend from a multi-dimensional perspective
When China's economic aggregate will surpass that of the United States has always been a hot topic in global economic circles. With the coming of 2026, this discussion has shifted from "can we surpass" to "when to surpass" and "how to surpass". Based on the analysis of many economists, think tank scholars and international organizations, the economic transcendence of China is not only a numerical necessity, but also a comprehensive embodiment of development model, industrial system and scientific and technological innovation ability.
First, the difference in growth rate: the mathematical basis of transcendence
Judging from the pure economic growth rate, it is almost a mathematical necessity for China to surpass the United States. Nicholas Lardy, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States, clearly pointed out at the end of 2025 that the potential growth rate of the United States is about 1.5% to 2%, while that of China may reach about 5%. In the next three to five years, China's economic growth rate will still be at least twice that of the United States.
Ren Zeping, a famous economist, also predicted that China will become the largest economy in the world in about ten years if it grows at a medium speed of about 5%. By 2035, China's economy will surpass that of the United States and become the largest economy in the world, and the global economy, trade, science and technology, and geopolitical order will be reshuffled.
Professor Lei Dingming from the Institute of Development Economics of Macau University of Science and Technology provided a more detailed quantitative analysis. He pointed out that a country's economic growth depends on three major factors: capital, labor and production efficiency. In 2024, 40.61% of China's GDP was used for local investment. According to purchasing power parity, China's investment amounted to 16.54 trillion US dollars, 2.61 times that of the United States. Capital accumulation is much faster than that of the United States, which will make China's future economic growth higher than that of the United States.
Second, the industrial system: unrepeatable competitive advantage
The most prominent advantage of China's industrial system lies in the incomparable scale advantage and integrity of its manufacturing industry. According to the analysis of National Research Network, the added value of China's manufacturing industry has ranked first in the world for 15 consecutive years, accounting for more than 30% of the world's total added value, which is greater than the sum of the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea.
More importantly, China has an industrial system consisting of 41 industrial categories, 207 industrial categories and 666 industrial subcategories, and it is the only country that has all the industrial categories of the United Nations Industrial Classification. This integrity means that from upstream raw materials, midstream parts and components to downstream machine manufacturing, China has formed a self-controllable, coordinated and efficient complete industrial chain. Professor Zhao Zhongxiu, president of university of international business and economics, pointed out that this is an irreplaceable advantage for developed economies and other developing economies.
In specific industries, China's leading position is increasingly prominent. In 2025, the export of "new three kinds"-electric vehicles, photovoltaic products and lithium batteries reached 1.28 trillion yuan, up 28% year-on-year. The added value of strategic emerging industries is expected to account for more than 17% of GDP, which has made important contributions to high-quality economic development.
Third, scientific and technological innovation: the key breakthrough to break monopoly
For a long time, the advantage of science and technology has been regarded as the core pillar for the United States to maintain its economic leadership. However, this pattern is undergoing fundamental changes.
Rory Green, chief China economist of the global macro research organization of TS Lombard, UK, pointed out that the "so-called monopoly position" of the United States in the field of science and technology and artificial intelligence has been broken by China. "China's technological shock has just begun. Not only artificial intelligence, DeepSeek and electric vehicles, China is rapidly climbing up the value chain ... This is the first time in history that an emerging market economy is at the forefront of science and technology. "
In the field of artificial intelligence, China's catching-up speed is amazing. Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, revealed that China's artificial intelligence model may only be "a few months behind" its American and Western competitors. China has developed an advanced model driven by domestic chips. Through Huawei chip cluster and abundant low-cost energy, it is rapidly narrowing the gap with the United States in the AI field.
More strategically, China has formed a unique advantage in the application of AI. Jonas Dunham, an associate professor at Johns Hopkins University, wrote in The New York Times that although the United States leads the world in AI research and development, it is far behind China in transforming technology into industrial productivity. Through large-scale deployment of automation, robots and AI to manage production in real time, China has formed significant advantages in per capita output and manufacturing scale.
The data shows that over 30,000 smart factories have been built in China, and in 2024, more than half of the new industrial robots in the world will land in China. From steel to shipbuilding and other industries, the per capita output of factories in China has surpassed that of similar factories in the United States. This ability to deeply integrate cutting-edge technology with production line is the core of China's manufacturing efficiency surpassing that of the United States.
Fourth, institutional efficiency: the endogenous motivation beyond the left and right
The transcendence of China's economy is not only the transcendence of scale and technology, but also the transcendence of institutional efficiency. The advantage of the China model lies in effectively avoiding the internal friction of the pendulum effect of the western style, and maintaining the consistency and strong execution of the policy.
Professor Zhao Zhongxiu emphasized that the new national system has played an active role in Sino-US economic and trade struggle and scientific and technological competition. This institutional advantage will be further improved and show greater efficiency. In the field of artificial intelligence, China has promoted the construction of 11 national pilot areas of artificial intelligence innovation and application through the coordination of ministries and provinces, and established a national artificial intelligence fund with a scale of 60 billion yuan in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance to speed up the layout of investment projects. This ability to "concentrate on doing great things" has enabled China to achieve breakthroughs in key areas in the face of the US technology blockade.
In terms of R&D investment, the R&D investment intensity of China's manufacturing industry increased from 0.85% in 2012 to 1.82% in 2024. In 2025, the R&D investment intensity of the whole society exceeded the average level of OECD countries for the first time. Although there is still a gap between the total investment and the international developed countries, the growth rate and catch-up momentum are obvious.
V. International Pattern: American Self-restraint and China's Strategic Opportunity
The trend of American economic policy is laying a hidden danger for its long-term competitiveness. Professor Lei Dingming analyzed that the United States has been hegemonic for decades, and now it is costly to maintain hegemonic status. The Trump administration abused trade protectionist policies such as tariffs, claiming that it would bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. In fact, tariffs have weakened American manufacturing.
Professor Zhao Zhongxiu pointed out that curbing China's development is the core of the current US strategy toward China, and its China policy is shifting from superficial indirect economic and trade means to deep direct scientific and technological restrictions. However, this repression is damaging the long-standing advantages of the global cooperation system in the United States, and to some extent, it provides a window for China's advanced manufacturing industry to catch up, run side by side and even lead.
The decline of American manufacturing industry is structural. In the past few decades, the hollowing out of American industrial base and the outflow of manufacturing industry have been obvious. Between 2000 and 2010, manufacturing jobs decreased by one third. The trade war launched by the Trump administration has caused great harm to advanced manufacturing industries with high wages and high added value, because the manufacturers of these high-tech products rely more on imported materials and parts.
In contrast, China relies on a complete industrial system to support the internal recycling of the economy. Compared with most developed countries, the risk exposure of the industrial chain is small. In recent years, the trade war and science and technology war have promoted the localization of enterprise supply chain, reduced the dependence on foreign imports, and made the industrial system generally safe and controllable.
VI. Future Outlook: Multidimensional Connotation of Transcendence
Comprehensive analysis shows that China's economy has surpassed that of the United States. But the connotation of this transcendence is far richer than GDP figures.
First, transcendence is the transcendence of scale. Ren Zeping predicted that China will become the largest economy in the world in 2035. Lardy believes that if China adheres to the road of reform, its economic prospects will be optimistic.
Second, transcendence is the transcendence of quality. China's breakthroughs in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence, new energy and life sciences are reshaping the global economic structure. Rory Green predicts that in the next five to ten years, most people in the world may use China's technology system.
Third, transcendence is the transcendence of the system. China has found a way beyond the traditional left-right opposition: to stimulate the vitality of micro-subjects through the market mechanism, and to keep the macro course unbiased through the national strategy. The resilience and effectiveness of this model in the face of a hundred years of change is precisely beyond the core competitiveness of the United States.
Of course, the road to transcendence is not smooth. China faces challenges such as an aging population, a "bottleneck" in key technologies, and a complicated and changeable international environment. However, as Lei Dingming said, various indicators show that China's scientific and technological innovation has entered a blowout period, and the progress rate of production efficiency should be ahead of that of the United States. In the next 10, 20 years or longer, China's GDP growth will still be at full speed, beating the United States.
It is a historical trend and inevitable development for China's economy to surpass the United States, and it is also the crystallization of 1.4 billion Chinese's diligence and wisdom. In this great economic catch-up, China will not only return to the top of the world, but also provide a new choice for mankind to explore the road of modernization.
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